The Miami Dolphins will take on the Buffalo Bills in Week 15, but weather conditions are expected to be most unfavorable leading up to and during the game. With several feet of snow on the ground already and more on its way, who might you start or sit in your fantasy football lineup? Let’s take a look at the key players that you should take into consideration.
Make sure you check back for the weather conditions prior to kickoff. The advice below is based on weather forecasts of heavy snow. If that is not the case, the fantasy advice changes slightly in terms of which players to start and sit.
Update: Jeff Wilson Jr. is inactive for the Miami Dolphins.
Dolphins vs. Bills Sit ’em
Tua Tagovailoa, QB
The weather does have a reasonably large impact on Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins’ passing game. There is certainly scope for Tua to get the ball into the hands of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and then make plays. However, that is tough to do consistently, and we could see it being reverses and handoffs that end up being utilized by the Dolphins to achieve that.
Tua can use his legs to make plays, and at times he most likely will. However, unlike Josh Allen, I am not expecting to see Mike McDaniel call many designed run plays to his QB in this matchup. In Superflex leagues, I would still start Tua, but he is someone that is just outside my top 12 QBs. Of course, if the snow clears ahead of the game or does not appear that extreme, he comes back into contention.
James Cook, RB
James Cook is a tougher player to call than the other RBs. His role in recent weeks has been in as much of a passing-downs role as anything. While I expect him to work in with Singletary, it should be the veteran who the Bills ride this week.
Cook still has some intriguing value in 16-team leagues, and if the snow is really heavy, he could volume himself into 14-team consideration. However, he is not an option I would be starting with a lot of confidence in 14-team leagues.
Gabe Davis, WR
Gabe Davis has been a boom-bust option all season, and that is not something that fills me with confidence. He has only gone over 40 yards once in the last four weeks, although he did at least find the end zone two weeks ago. Even then, he only finished with 8.5 fantasy points in half-PPR.
If this game is run-dominated, then it could present an opportunity as defenders draw towards the line of scrimmage. In Underdog Fantasy Best Ball drafts, I would consider throwing a late-round pick at Davis because he only needs one 40-yard touchdown to bring you tremendous value. I am not trusting it in my traditional leagues, but where I can get the positives without the risk, Davis is a dream option.
If the snow is clear, the Davis is a fringe 12-team Flex option, but the risk-reward balance is a tightrope for fantasy managers.
Jaylen Waddle, WR
The decision over Jaylen Waddle might be the toughest of all. To be clear, this is not a blanket sit. A lot of it will depend on the conditions at kickoff. Without the snow, Waddle is a top 20 WR option for Week 15. However, if the snow is as bad as some predict, I just worry he won’t get enough opportunities to be a starting option.
In 14 and 16-team leagues, I would still be looking to start Waddle, but in 12-team leagues, he has slumped down my rankings. Some names I am debating starting over Waddle include Zay Jones, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Allen Lazard, and Brandon Aiyuk. That places him right around the WR30 region, which is fringe Flex starter level in 12-team leagues.
Dawson Knox, TE
I am always looking for a reason to be convinced to start Dawson Knox, and there is not enough this week to make me go that way. He had his best fantasy return of the season last week with 41 yards and a touchdown.
However, in a game where passing could be depressed, it is hard to see Knox getting enough targets to be a 12 or 14-team option this week.
Dolphins vs. Bills Start ’em
Josh Allen, QB
Josh Allen is a unique quarterback for these circumstances because he has a couple of parts of his game that puts him in position to succeed. In terms of the passing game, Allen has the arm strength to cut through the elements. While you still do not want to be relying on him to throw the ball 20-plus yards down the field, he will also be less impacted than other passers on 10-15-yard passes, which can have a lot of value.
Equally, Allen can use his legs to make plays, which in a snow game will be crucial. His ceiling might not be as high as it would be on a normal week, but it would be unlikely you have a good enough backup option to start over Allen. Unless you are sitting with a combination of Allen and Hurts, or Allen and Fields, this is a pretty easy decision to start Allen.
Devin Singletary, RB
The run game for both sides could be instrumental, and Devin Singletary could be a big beneficiary. Singletary is still seemingly the lead back when it comes to rushing attempts in the Bills’ offense.
Therefore, there is a good chance he carries the ball 20 or more times in this game. Allen and his usage around the goal line will limit the ceiling, but this feels like a game where Singletary can volume himself into a 12-team starting value.
Raheem Mostert, RB
Raheem Mostert is in a similar situation to Singletary. With Jeff Wilson Jr. inactive, he should be the lead back. I am not expecting the Dolphins to give the ball to Mostert 30-plus times, but somewhere in the region of 20-25 is more than possible if there is snow during the game. That kind of volume should set Mostert up to be a 14-team option at least, and potentially even a 12-team Flex level starting option.
Stefon Diggs, WR
Stefon Diggs is a player who is always hard to bench, even in a snowstorm. His talent, in combination with Allen’s ability to cut through the elements with his passes, should mean he still sees around 8 to 10 touches. His ceiling is hurt by this weather, but not enough to bench him.
Tyreek Hill, WR
Similar to Diggs, Hill is not someone you are benching without extreme cause. If this weather was combined with him being limited, then it might be a consideration. However, he was cleared from the ankle issue from last week, so it should be a full go in this one.
We saw last week how electric Hill can be in space and whatever the weather, Miami will try to get him the ball in space. He only needs to break one play to make himself a starting option. I’ll back the odds he does that as opposed to failing completely because of the weather.