Jets vs. Jaguars: Thursday Night Football Primer & Start/Sit Advice (Week 16)

Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews to help you prepare for Thursday Night Football.

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Jets vs. Jaguars: Thursday Night Football Primer & Start/Sit Advice (Week 16)

Pace and playcalling notes

  • New York let Wilson rip it last week as they continued with a similar offensive approach they leaned into with Mike White. Last week the Jets were 12th in neutral pace and ninth in neutral passing rate.
  • Since Week 9, Jacksonville has been fifth in neutral pace and seventh in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence has been en Fuego since Week 9. He’s first in PFF passing grade, second in passing touchdowns, third in big-time throws and second in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Over his last six games, Lawrence is the QB5 in fantasy. He has a tough test this week against a stout Jets pass defense. New York is third in yards per attempt, third in passing touchdown rate, and eighth in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Lawrence is a low-end QB1.

Zach Wilson: Wilson finished as the QB9 in his first game back under center despite objectively playing terrible football. Last week he was 19th in PFF passing grade, fourth in turnover-worthy plays, and 31st in adjusted completion rate, with only Mac Jones and Nathan Peterman finishing lower than Wilson. Despite still struggling as an NFL quarterback, he could post another top 12 week against a Jaguars pass defense that’s been one of the worst in the league. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has been 32nd in success rate per dropback and EPA per dropback. This defense has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game, fourth-most passing yards, and fourth-most passing touchdowns this season. Wilson is a scary QB2 that could Blake Bortles his way to a QB1 week.

Running Backs

Travis Etienne: After an injury hiccup and a down four-game stretch, Etienne bounced back last week against Dallas with 21 touches, 127 total yards, and an RB22 finish. Etienne has dipped to 35th in yards after contact per attempt, but he is still eighth in missed tackles forced, tenth in breakaway rate, and 24th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 50 carries). The Jets are no cakewalk, but that doesn’t mean Etienne can’t walk away from Week 16 with a productive week as an RB2. Since Week 10, New York has been fifth in EPA per rush and second in rushing success rate, but they are also 14th in rushing yards per game and 19th in explosive run rate allowed. Etienne can break off a long run or two, and if he gets into the end zone, he’s posting a strong week. New York is also 22nd in yards per reception allowed to running backs over their last five games, so Etienne also has a solid runway to take a check down for a big gain.

Week 15

Zonova Knight: Over the last two weeks as a platoon running back with Carter, Knight has averaged 16 touches and 50 total yards. Last week he swallowed up the early down work while yielding to Carter in the red zone and on passing downs. Knight has still been effective with his carries ranking 19th in yards after contact per attempt, 26th in breakaway rate, and first in PFF elusive rating (minimum 50 carries). Knight is a high-end RB3 who could easily be an RB2 this week against a soft Jacksonville run defense. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has been 26th in rushing success rate, 24th in rushing yards per game, and 22nd in explosive run rate.

Michael Carter: Carter has been the passing down compliment to Knight over the last two weeks, averaging 6.5 touches and 25.5 total yards. Carter has only two red zone opportunities over the last two games, so with the limited volume and red zone equity, he’s nothing more than a touchdown or bust RB4. Carter is 14th in breakaway run rate, but he’s also 32nd in juke rate and 36th in evaded tackles. If he doesn’t fly into the endzone or find daylight for a long run, you’ll be sorry you rolled him out as your flex for the week.

Wide Receivers

Christian Kirk: Kirk has a 23.7% target share, 27.8% end zone target share, and 28.7% air yard share. Kirk is 21st in PFF receiving grade and 31st in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Kirk hasn’t scored since Week 10 despite seeing at least seven targets in each of his last four games and surpassing 90 receiving yards in two. Zay Jones has been grabbing headlines over the last few games, but the volume should flow back in Kirk’s direction this week. Kirk will run about 76% of his routes against Michael Carter (68.2% catch rate, 77.5 passer rating) as a WR2/3.

Zay Jones: After last week’s insane game, Zay Jones has risen to WR21 in fantasy points per game. Jones has a 22.8% target share, 27.8% end zone target share (tied with Kirk), and 26% air yard share. Jones has 1.73 yards per route run and a 24% target per route run rate. Jones is ninth in red zone targets among wide receivers. Jones faces an uphill battle this week as a WR3 while running about 67% of his routes against DJ Reed (54.7% catch rate, 73.5 passer rating) and Sauce Gardner (44.1% catch rate, 48.8 passer rating).

Marvin Jones: Jones has touchdowns in two of his last four games that have saved his days, but he hasn’t finished a game with at least 50 receiving yards since Week 7. He’s only mustered a 13.6% target share and 1.13 yards per route this season. Jones is a must-sit against this talented outside corner duo.

Garrett Wilson: Wilson is the WR27 in fantasy with a 23.9% target share, 27.3% end zone target share, and 32.7% air yard share since Week 8. Wilson has been a top-30 wide receiver in six of his last seven games, with three WR1 outings. Wilson is ninth in PFF receiving grade and 19th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Wilson is a WR2 that will run about 58% of his routes against Tyson Campbell (60.6% catch rate, 91.7 passer rating) and Darious Williams (58.0% catch rate, 89.0 passer rating).

Elijah Moore: Over the last two games, Moore has a 22.1% target share, 20.8% air yard share, and 88.9% route run rate. Since Week 13, he has had four deep and red zone targets. Moore is a WR3/4 that will run about 66% of his routes against Tre Herndon (67.7% catch rate, 129.6 passer rating).

Corey Davis: Davis has been out since sustaining a concussion in Week 14. He was a DNP all last week. Davis is trending upward this week as an estimated limited participant on Monday and a full participant on Tuesday.

Tight Ends

Evan Engram: Engram has been otherworldly over the last two games with a 29.8% target share, 25% end zone target share, and 3.03 yards per route run. He’s the TE8 for the season with top-six tight end finishes (TE4, TE1, TE6) in each of the last three games. Since Week 13, Engram has had five red zone targets and three receiving touchdowns. He has a tough matchup this week against New York, who is tenth in DVOA, 20th in receiving yards, and has allowed only two receiving touchdowns to tight ends this season. Engram is a TE1 based on volume alone.

Tyler Conklin: With Wilson under center, Conklin has a 15% target share, 30.8% end zone target share, and 56.8% route run rate. Conklin is a matchup-based streaming option this week. Jacksonville is 31st in DVOA, 23rd in catch rate, 29th in receiving yards, and 30th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistantwhich allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, Rotoviz, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*

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