It has been a miserable couple of decades for American men in the Grand Slams. Andy Roddick’s 2003 US Open remains the last time an American won a major title, while Roddick’s epic five-set 2009 Wimbledon loss to Roger Federer remains the last time an American was even in a final.
That streak is not likely to be broken anytime soon, but the American male contingent is making its presence felt at Wimbledon thus far. With Brandon Nakashima, Jenson Brooksby and Taylor Fritz advancing to the third round on Thursday – and Jack Sock up two sets in a suspended match – Americans will represent eight of the final 32 players left for the title.
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Already, that makes this the Americans ’most successful first week of Wimbledon since 1993 when nine players made the third round. Since 1997, no more than five American men have advanced that far.
Here is a look at the remaining players representing the US and their chances of winning three more matches and advancing to the semifinals.
John Isner
Age: 37
Best Wimbledon result: Semifinal (2018)
Surprise level (out of 10): 7
Despite the big serve that has kept him around the top 20 in the world for a long time, Isner hasn’t had great success at Wimbledon. Despite the one semifinal run four years ago, this is only his fifth time in the third round out of 13 appearances. And to get here, he had to beat Andy Murray on Center Court, a two-time Wimbledon champion who had beaten Isner in all eight prior meetings. (Murray, to be fair, has not been the same player since major hip surgery in 2019.)
Semifinal chances (out of 10): 2
Isner’s run could end Friday against Jannik Sinner, the 10th-seeded Italian with big power off the ground. Even if Isner gets by that one (they split their two meetings last year on hard courts), he’d project to face the 19-year old sensation Carlos Alcaraz in the round of 16 and then No. 1 seed Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals.
Frances Tiafoe
Age: 24
Best Wimbledon result: Third round (2018, 2021, 2022)
Surprise level: 0
Tiafoe got a great draw that foreshadowed a potential big run, and he easily defeated qualifiers in the first two rounds. Tiafoe has done well on the grass in the past, including a win over Stefanos Tsitsipas at Wimbledon last year and a Challenger Tour title last summer in Nottingham. His ability to hit the ball hard and flat is a real asset on this surface.
Semifinal chances: 7
This remains a very manageable section of the draw for “Big Foe.” Friday’s matchup will be tough against Alexander Bublik, a big server with an unpredictable and inconsistent streak. He’s a very tough customer when he’s playing well, but it’s a Tiafoe match can absolutely win. An unseeded player – France’s Ugo Humbert or more likely Belgium’s David Goffin – would await in the next round. The highest remaining seed in this quarter is No. 9 Cam Norrie, who has never been past the third round of a Grand Slam. A ton of opportunity here.
Steve Johnson
Age: 32
Best Wimbledon result: Fourth round (2016)
Surprise level: 8
Despite having a good grass court game style, Johnson hasn’t had good results the last couple years and is barely hanging onto a top-100 ranking. He was a big underdog in the first round to No. 18 seed Grigor Dimitrov, but Dimitrov was forced to retire with a groin injury in the second set. After that, Johnson took out British wildcard Ryan Peniston, who had never been in a grand Slam singles main draw before. Johnson will draw Norrie, which isn’t an impossible matchup. He’d be an underdog again, though, against Paul in the fourth round and someone like Tiafoe in the quarters. It’s not impossible, but it seems unlikely he can carry this much farther.
Semifinal chances: 4
Tommy Paul
Age: 25
Best Wimbledon result: Third round (2022)
Surprise level: 5
This is Paul’s debut in the Wimbledon main draw, but he’s been in pretty good form lately with a career-high ranking of No. 32. He also made the quarterfinals at both Queen’s Club and Eastbourne warm-up events on grass, beating Denis Shapovalov, Stan Wawrinka and Sinner along the way. Paul has done very well to easily beat two aging veterans in Fernando Verdasco and Adrian Man heading into his third-round match against No. 68 Jiri Vesely
Semifinal chances: 7
Similar to Tiafoe, the draw has broken very favorably for Paul. He will be favored against Vesely and could definitely beat Norrie or Johnson in the round of 16. It wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see him and Tiafoe face each other for a semifinal berth.
Jack Sock
Age: 29
Best Wimbledon result: Third round (2016)
Surprise level: 8
Sock was a top-10 player five years ago, but at this point he’s more of a doubles specialist. In fact, he came into Wimbledon with just eight ATP-level singles matches in 2022 (3-5) while playing mostly on the Challenger tour. Grass certainly suits his game with the big serve and forehand, and he had a favorable first-round matchup against qualifier Bernabe Zapata Miralles. It would’ve been hard to see him getting past No. 6 seed Felix Auger-Aliassime in the second round, but fellow American Maxime Cressy took care of that with an upset victory. Sock led Cressy 6-4, 6-4 in Thursday’s second-round match that was suspended due to darkness.
Semifinal chances: 2
Sock should absolutely win one more round but No. 11 seed Taylor Fritz would likely await in the round of 16 and then Rafael Nadal in the quarterfinals. Likely not happening unless someone knocks off Nadal in the meantime.
Taylor Fritz
Age: 24
Best Wimbledon result: Third round (2021, 2022)
Surprise level: 0
Fritz is having a career year and playing really good tennis lately, winning his biggest title in March at Indian Wells and the Eastbourne crown last week on grass. He’s now a guy that the top players take seriously, and he’s been building toward a Slam breakthrough. As the No. 11 seed, he’s taken care of business efficiently in the first two rounds.
Semifinal chances: 4
It would be a big disappointment if Fritz didn’t make the quarterfinals given the relatively easy draw in front of him. But if it came down to it, could he beat Nadal for a semifinal berth? It’s unlikely, for obvious reasons. But Fritz does have a heavy serve and the kind of game that could trouble Nadal on grass. Worth noting that Fritz beat an injured Nadal earlier this year in the Indian Wells final.
Brandon Nakashima
Age: 20
Best Wimbledon result: Third round (2022)
Surprise level: 5
It’s been a slow build over the last couple years, but making back-to-back third rounds at the French Open and Wimbledon signals that he’s on the right track. Known for his terrific backhand, the San Diego native and former University of Virginia star was able to take advantage of his second-round draw against No. 13 seed Denis Shapovalov, who has been in terrible form lately.
Semifinal chances: 5
Colombian Daniel Galan, ranked No. 109, should be a favorable matchup for Nakashima in the third round. In the fourth round, he’d face either Nick Kyrgios or No. 4 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas. Though Nakashima would be a clear underdog against either one, both have shown they are beatable by lower-ranked players in Grand Slams. But the other half of that quarter is completely wide open.
Jenson Brooksby
Age: 21
Best Wimbledon result: Third round (2022)
Surprise level: 8
Lots of people in tennis think Brooksby could be the guy to eventually break the Grand Slam drought with his unorthodox, hard-to-read game. He certainly put himself on the radar last year at the US Open by making the fourth round and giving Novak Djokovic all he could handle at Arthur Ashe Stadium. But let’s face it: Even with a good draw, the 34th-ranked Brooksby didn’t look ready at all for grass in the warm-up events. It’s pretty shocking that he’s found some form here with straight set wins over Mikhael Kukushkin and Benjamin Bonzi.
Semifinal chances: 5
Brooksby got a major break when Matteo Berrettini withdrew from his section of the draw due to COVID, so he’ll face Christian Garin of Chile, who is mostly known for clay court prowess. Brooksby is no sure thing, but his section of the draw is not daunting. If he gets to the quarters, you could see his quirky game frustrating either Kyrgios or Tsitsipas.
