NASCAR Cup Series playoffs at Martinsville odds, picks: Who will make the Championship 4?

There are two races left in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. This weekend in Martinsville, the playoff field will go from eight to four, setting up the championship race in Phoenix.

Joey Logano has already locked up his spot among the final four drivers thanks to his win in Las Vegas and he leads the points standings. Ross Chastain, Chase Elliott and William Byron are also in the top four entering this weekend’s Xfinity 500 at the Martinsville Speedway.

NASCAR points standings

At just over half a mile, Martinsville is the shortest track on the NASCAR schedule. How will that affect the racing with so many drivers jockeying for a spot in the championship race? The Athletic‘s Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi have some answers on what to expect from the Xfinity 500.

Martinsville is the shortest track on the NASCAR schedule. Which drivers and cars do a short track benefit?

Gluck: I’m not sure we can reliably answer that question at this point, because it’s all changed with the Next Gen car. This year, the new car has largely turned short tracks into track position races and made the spring Martinsville race one of the worst of the season because drivers couldn’t even get close enough to each other to make contact (let alone pass). So when you’re looking at who to bet on this weekend, it might be better to wait until you see the qualifying results on Saturday. Those who start in the top five are going to have a much larger advantage than normal over a driver who starts around 20th (at least based on how we think the race will play out). So keep your hands in your pockets until Saturday afternoon.

White: The game has changed when it comes to short track racing. Track position has always been an important aspect to racing at Martinsville, however with the old car drivers could still make passes and someone driving up from the back wasn’t an uncommon sight. But in the spring, Martinsville was primarily all about track position as passing proved quite difficult, and the widespread belief is that Sunday’s race will unfold similarly. That said, and not knowing who’s going to qualify where, Hendrick Motorsports had a good handle on this track in the spring with William Byron and Chase Elliott combining to lead 397 laps of a possible 400. Both are expected to be contenders on Sunday.

What three drivers will be joining Joey Logano among the Championship 4?

Gluck: We’re currently not expecting a chaotic Martinsville race, which reduces the chance for someone with a decent points cushion to tumble out (by getting caught in a wreck, for example). So I’ll put Ross Chastain and Chase Elliott into the final four as long as they don’t have a disaster in qualifying. Who else? Well, the drivers in must-win situations (Christopher Bell, Chase Briscoe, Ryan Blaney) have never won at Martinsville. Doing so now would be quite a tall task and create an all-time playoff moment. That seems unlikely, so I’ll go with the final spot coming down to William Byron and Denny Hamlin in a coin flip. Even though Hamlin has five career wins, Byron won at Martinsville in the spring and has the best average finish of any driver in the four paved short track races this season.

White: Here’s what I wrote earlier this week previewing Sunday’s race:

Looking at the standings and who’s currently in and who’s out — and by how much — the picture on who advances to the Championship 4 appears mostly clear. We know that Logano has already punched his ticket and, barring something disastrous, Ross Chastain is in good shape. The 11-point advantage Elliott holds, plus how well he runs at Martinsville, gives confidence he’ll join Logano and Chastain in the next round.

The final spot comes down to Byron, Hamlin and Blaney. Both Byron and Hamlin can go on by points, whereas winning is Blaney’s only realistic avenue. That’s a tough situation to be in, so Blaney is out.

The deciding factor is that, while Hamlin is regarded as the Martinsville master, Byron won there in the spring and Hamlin struggled. It’s hard to envision Hamlin closing the performance gap enough where he can outrun Byron.

Are you expecting driver cuts to go down to the last lap like we got last round in Charlotte or will things be more settled in the final stretch of this weekend’s race?

Gluck: That often seems to be the case, and with only five points between Byron and Hamlin, it could certainly happen again. Assuming both qualify well and gain stage points in the first half of the race, it is absolutely possible to see the final spot come down to a couple positions – or even a tiebreaker. That said, if it’s tough to pass then a strategy call might end up deciding the final spot instead of a dramatic pass on track.

White: The points are too tight to think this won’t come down to the final laps Sunday. Expect a scenario like we usually see in this race: lots of chaos over the final laps that lends itself to the standings continually shuffling and not knowing who’s advanced until the checkered flag waves.

What longshots have a realistic chance to win this weekend?

Gluck: I don’t think it would be shocking to see Brad Keselowski win this week (he’s +2800, so I’ll count that as a longshot). Chris Buescher, Keselowski’s teammate, won the most recent short track race last month at Bristol. And Keselowski led 109 laps in that race himself until he suffered a tire problem. When you look at Keselowski’s body of work at Martinsville, he has finished in the top five of nearly half his career races there (12 of 25 times) and won twice. Those things lead me to believe he could have another solid performance on Sunday.

White: AJ Allmendinger. And, yes, you read that correctly. Twice Allmendinger has finished second here, which by itself makes him an intriguing sleeper. Then, when you consider that he comes in on quite the hot streak having finished ninth or better in his past six Cup starts, his +4000 odds to win offer some enticing value.

Who is your pick to win the race?

Gluck: We still don’t have a ton of data with this Next Gen car on short tracks, as there have only been four such paved races this season (one Martinsville, one Bristol and two Richmonds). While Martinsville stands on its own as a unique track – with its paperclip shape and lack of banking – you could look at a combination of short tracks and flat tracks to see who might be good. Oddly, that might point to Joey Logano (+900), who is already locked into the final four. It causes a bit of hesitation because Logano and his team are likely focused on Phoenix and haven’t put a ton of effort into Martinsville, which means nothing to them in terms of the championship. That said, Logano also won’t have to chase stage points like some of the other contenders and can simply go with a strategy to try and win. Given his record on flat/short tracks recently (a win at Gateway, 222 laps led at Richmond before finishing sixth), it’s possible Logano could pull off a Martinsville victory as well. After all, he finished second there in the spring.

White: Logano is a very good pick for all the reasons Jeff listed. But the dominance Hendrick Motorsports flexed in the spring cannot be ignored. Knowing this, the pick is Chase Elliott, who scores his second Martinsville victory to lock himself in the Championship 4 for a third consecutive year.

Xfinity 500 odds

Odds from BetMGM.

(Photo of Chase Elliott: John David Mercer/USA Today)