NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, Dec. 14): Is Jordan Poole a Must-Play?

Wednesday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 pm ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use the PrizePicks promo code LABS to get a $100 sign-up bonus for NBA player props.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

The top point guard spot is pretty easy on Wednesday’s slate. The Warriors are going to be on the second leg of a back-to-back, which makes it a near certainty that Klay Thompson will be out of the lineup. He’s yet to play in a back-to-back this season, and head coach Steve Kerr has previously stated that Thompson might not play both ends of a back-to-back every year. The team is already without Andrew Wigginsso there will be plenty of usage and minutes available against the Pacers.

Jordan Poole has reached the point where he’s basically a no-brainer whenever Thompson is out of the lineup. He averaged 43.65 DraftKings points per 36 minutes in five games without Thompson this year. He’s also increased his usage rate by +2.6% with Thompson and Wiggins off the court in general, so he carries significantly more upside than usual.

Poole is an elite play across the industry, but he’s basically unfadable at $6,700 on FanDuel.


Value

Markelle Fultz is another outstanding option on FanDuel, where his $4,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%. He hasn’t been particularly effective on a per-minute basis this season, averaging just 0.77 FanDuel points per minute, but he has historically been much better in that area. I would expect that number to rise as he plays more, but even if he doesn’t, he’ll still have a chance to return value at $4,600. He’s currently projected for more than 26 minutes in our NBA Models, and his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.40 is one of the top marks at the position.


Fast Break

Coby White is a nice potential source of value at $3,700 on DraftKings. He racked up at least 23.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and he played nearly 31.5 minutes in the Bulls’ last contest. That was with Alex Caruso out of the lineup, and while Caruso is probable for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Knicks, Ayo Dosunmu is questionable.

On the other side of that matchup, Jalen Brunson is questionable for the Knicks. If he’s able to suit up, he has some buy-low appeal at $6,800. He averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.20 with a comparable salary in his first year in New York (per the Trends tool).

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

The Heat have provided us with another unnecessarily long injury report for Wednesday, but there was one actionable piece of news sprinkled among the garbage. The team has ruled out Jimmy Butler for injury management, which is a big deal. He ranks first on the team in assist rate and third in usage, so other players are going to have to pick up the slack.

Tyler Hero is the most likely option. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +2.6% with Butler off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.11 DraftKings points per minute. He’s averaging a career-best 34.3 minutes per game as a full-time starter this season, and that number could easily approach 38 with Butler sidelined.

The Thunder are also a fantastic matchup for Herro. They’ve played at the third fastest pace this season, while Miami ranks just 23rd. That makes this a significant pace-up spot, giving the Heat more scoring potential than usual.


Value

The Raptors are going to be without OG Anunoby on Wednesday, which means that Nick Nurse is going to push his remaining starters even harder than usual. The Raptors’ starters already carry some of the largest workloads in basketball, but Gary Trent Jr. got to 43.5 minutes in his last outing. That game wasn’t even particularly competitive – the Raptors lost to the Magic by 12 points – so don’t expect Nurse to ease up on the gas pedal too much on Wednesday.

Trent has already been a decent source of value recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games. He got to 32.25 DraftKings points per minute in his last outing, and he’ll have the chance to duplicate that feat against the Kings. They’re a below-average team in terms of defensive efficiency, and the Raptors’ implied team total of 118.25 ranks fourth on the slate.


Fast Break

Caleb Martin is another backcourt option to consider for the Heat. He’s played massive minutes recently, logging 40.4, 36.4, and 39.7 in his past three games, and that doesn’t figure to change with Butler sidelined. That’s a lot of playing time for someone who costs just $5,000 on FanDuel.

Zach LaVine has posted a negative Plus/Minus in back-to-back games, but he still owns an average Plus/Minus of +6.36 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. His price tag has decreased to $7,300 on FanDuel for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Knicks, who somewhat surprisingly rank 10th in pace this season. They’re not nearly as bad of a matchup as they’ve been in the past.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

The Timberwolves are coming off a disappointing showing in their last contest. They suffered a 21-point defeat to the Blazers, which impacted the fantasy numbers for the entire roster.

Still, Anthony Edwards has been a pretty nice source of value recently. He’s scored at least 43.0 DraftKings points in five of his past seven games, and he’s seen an uptick in usage following the injury to Karl-Anthony Towns. D’Angelo Russell is also questionable for the Timberwolves on Wednesday, and it would be tough to avoid Edwards if Russell is ruled out. He’s increased his usage rate by +6.6% with KAT and Russell off the floor, resulting in an average of 1.43 DraftKings points per minute. None of Wednesday’s forwards have been as good over the past month, with Pascal Siakam leading the way at 1.41.


Value

Bogdan Bogdanovic got the night of in the Hawks’ last contest, but he should be back in full force on Wednesday. He’s suited up in just five games this season, but the Hawks have had no choice but to unleash him following the injury to Dejounte Murray. He’s logged 33.5 and 35.7 minutes in his past two games, and he’s responded with at least 42.5 DraftKings points in both. Bogdanovic is probably due for a bit of regression as a scorer – he’s knocked down at least six 3-pointers in back-to-back games – but he still stands out as one of the best values ​​of the day at $5,000.


Fast Break

Kyle Anderson is another nice bounce-back target for the Timberwolves. He’s been a reliable producer since KAT went down with an injury, scoring at least 29.7 FanDuel points in four of his past six games. As long as his playing time returns to normal on Wednesday, he’s a strong bet to return value at $5,900 on FanDuel.

Kawhi Leonard finally broke out in his last game. He racked up 47.25 DraftKings points in 29.2 minutes, and he’s played right around 30 minutes in three straight games. Leonard has historically been one of the best players in fantasy, so he should continue to provide value at his current salary with a 30-minute-per-night workload.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

It sounds like though LaMelo Ball will return to the Hornets rotation on Wednesday, and boy, do they need him. They’re currently riding a five-game losing streak, and they’ve won just three of their past 12 games.

Even with Ball back in the fold, PJ Washington still has plenty of upside. He’s had a wide range of outcomes recently, but he does have at least 30.75 DraftKings points in two of his past four games. That gives him a nice ceiling in a great matchup vs. the Pistons, who rank 29th in defensive efficiency.


Value

Things aren’t looking great in the Spurs’ frontcourt. Jakob Poeltl remains out with a knee injury, meanwhile Zack Collins is doubtful with an ankle injury. Keita Bates-Diop is also questionable, and his absence would leave the team pretty thin at power forward and center.

That makes Isaiah Roby an extremely appealing value option at just $3,300 on DraftKings. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%, and he averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s currently projected for just under 20 minutes in our NBA Models, and that should be enough for him to return value.


Fast Break

Darius Bazley is another potential value at the position. He’s priced at the absolute minimum at $3,000, and while he’s struggled recently, he’s still averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s projected to see around 22 minutes vs. the Heat, and min-priced players have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.02 with a comparable minute projection.

Domantas Sabonis struggled with fouls Tuesday vs. the 76ers, which limited him to just 29.7 minutes. That didn’t stop him from returning a positive Plus/Minus, but it did slightly cap his upside. He’ll have the chance for a much better performance vs. the Raptors, and he’s an appealing contrarian option on FanDuel. He shouldn’t carry much ownership, but he leads the position with 12 Pro Trends.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Bam Adebayo is another member of the Heat who should benefit from the absence of Butler. He’s increased his usage rate (+1.8%), assist rate (+4.6%), and rebound rate (+1.2%) with Butler off the floor this season, giving him significantly more upside than usual. The Thunder also stand out as an elite matchup for big men, ranking just 28th in team rebound rate and 27th in points in the paint allowed per game. Adebayo is capable of impacting games in multiple areas, so this sets up as a potential smash spot.


Value

Charles Bassey has emerged as a favorite for DFS players this season. The second-round pick from the 2021 NBA Draft has been fantastic when given the chance to play, averaging 1.17 DraftKings points per minute. He has the chance to play a significant role for the Spurs on Wednesday given their current injury situation.


Fast Break

What does Clint Capela have to do to be priced properly on FanDuel? The guy continues to smash on a nightly basis, going off for 39.3 FanDuel points at $6,200 vs. the Bulls on Sunday. He got the night off on Monday, but he should be back in the lineup for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Magic. His price hasn’t budged, so he’s a clear target in an excellent matchup.

Mitchell Robinson hasn’t flashed a huge ceiling of late, but he’s been a pretty steady contributor. He stands out as an excellent value on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 85%, and his matchup vs. the Bulls come with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.36.

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