NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, Nov. 30): Timberwolves Providing Value on Massive Slate

Wednesday features a 13-game slate starting at 7 pm ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

The Pacers were expected to be in contention for a top lottery spot this season, but they’re currently in fourth place in the Eastern Conference. It seems unlikely they can hold on to a guaranteed playoff spot, but Tyrese Haliburton is doing everything possible to keep the team competitive. He’s averaging 19.9 points, 11.3 assists, and 4.7 rebounds per game, good for an average of 48.43 DraftKings points. He’s averaged 1.40 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which trails only Yes Morant among Wednesday’s backcourt options.

Haliburton draws a matchup against his former team on Wednesday. The Kings are another team that has exceeded expectations this season, but they remain a fantastic fantasy matchup. They rank seventh in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency, and this game leads the slate with a 242.5-point total. No other contest is above 231.5, so this is clearly a game to get some exposure to.


Value

The big news on this slate involves the injury to Karl-Anthony Towns. He’s expected to miss 4-6 weeks with a calf strain, which is going to open up plenty of offensive opportunities for the rest of the roster. Towns hasn’t been quite as active offensively as he has been in years past, but his 24.6% usage rate still ranks second among the team’s starters.

Jaylen Nowell has been extremely efficient on a per-minute basis this season, averaging 1.07 DraftKings points per minute, and his minutes should be much more secure with Towns out of the picture. He’s played at least 24.2 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s scored at least 28.25 DraftKings points in both. Expect him to see a similar workload on Wednesday, making him one of the best value options on the slate.


Quick Hits

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been a fantasy monster this season, but he’s questionable for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Spurs. Given that the Thunder have no intentions of qualifying for the playoffs, it wouldn’t be a shock if he sat. That would leave Three Man as the team’s starting point guard, and he averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute with SGA off the floor this season.

Morant is a bit too expensive on DraftKings, but his FanDuel salary is just right. It comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past eight games. The Timberwolves have played at the third-fastest pace this season, so this is a nice matchup as well.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

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D’Angelo Russell is someone who should see a boost in value. He averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute with Towns off the floor last season, and he averaged 42.88 DraftKings points in two games with the star big man out of the lineup. Russell has always had a massive ceiling, but the absence of Towns should make him a bit more consistent on a night-to-night basis.

Russell is also priced near the bottom of his range. His salary has decreased by -$900 over the past month on FanDuel and -$600 on DraftKings. He’s only eligible at shooting guard on FanDuel, but he’s a solid option wherever you choose to play him.


Value

Joe Harris has been an abomination this season, but it’s hard to believe that he forgot how to shoot the ball. He’s historically been one of the best 3-point shooters in the league, so expect him to improve on his 31.8% 3-point percentage. If he does, he’s going to provide excellent value at just $3,800 on DraftKings. Harris is currently projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.26 (per the Trends tool).


Fast Break

Malik Monk is coming off 30.3 minutes in his last outing, and he has at least 37.5 DraftKings points in two of his past three games. He has one of the best ceilings in this price range given his average of 1.14 DraftKings points per minute. He’s underpriced at $4,900, especially in a fantastic matchup vs. the Pacers.

Collin Sexton could be a bit of a forgotten man on FanDuel, which would be a mistake. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, and he’s coming off 36.4 minutes in his last contest. He’s too cheap at $5,100, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 85%.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

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Jayson Tatum got a rare breather on Sunday, and it seems like Jaylen Brown could get the same treatment today. Such is the life of a team with a 17-4 record. Tatum and Brown routinely carry monster workloads and getting them a break from time to time is a luxury the Celtics can afford. Brown is officially questionable, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he ends up getting the night off.

If Brown sits, Tatum will be asked to carry the offense. Tatum does plenty of scoring for the Celtics even when Brown is active, but he’s increased his usage rate by +3.2% with his star teammate off the floor. He’s been phenomenal of late, averaging 1.46 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he would have the potential for an even bigger performance if Brown is inactive.


Value

Justice Winslow has been an excellent source of value recently, posting a Plus/Minus of at least +7.24 in four straight games on DraftKings. Winslow is off to a bit of a slow start from a per-minute perspective – he’s averaged 0.78 DKFP per minute this season – but he’s made up for it with plenty of volume of late. He’s racked up at least 33.7 minutes in three straight games, and he’s currently projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models.


Fast Break

Anthony Edwards is a bit more expensive than Russell, but he’s also in play with Towns out of the lineup. He’s seen a team-high +4.0% usage bump with Towns off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.21 DraftKings points per minute.

Keldon Johnson is mired in a deep shooting slump, but he still managed to return value in his last game. He racked up 51.5 FanDuel points despite shooting just 10-28 from the field, so he has the potential for even better performances moving forward.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

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The Blazers are coming off a tough loss to the Clippers on Tuesday, blowing an 18-point second-half lead, but don’t blame Jeremy Grant. He turned in another fantastic performance, racking up 48.25 DraftKings points thanks to 32 points, three rebounds, two assists, two steals, and two blocks.

Grant is one of the most underrated players in the league, and he’s been asked to do much more scoring than usual with Damian Lillard sidelined. He has posted a usage rate of at least 30.4% in three straight games, but it has done very little to impact his efficiency. Grant is in another excellent spot Wednesday vs. the Lakers, who have played at the second-fastest pace this season.


Value

Kyle Anderson is the favorite to move into the starting lineup for Towns, and he has the potential to see 30+ minutes against his former team. That makes him tough to pass up at $3,800. Anderson has always been a solid fantasy producer, and he averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s historically played at least 26 minutes in 100 games with the Grizzlies and Timberwolves, and he’s averaged 28.84 DraftKings points in those contests.


Fast Break

Paolo Banchero hasn’t looked quite as impressive since returning from an injury, but he’s still averaged 1.10 FanDuel points per minute this season. He leads all power forwards with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $7,700 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%.

The Pelicans are going to be without CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram again on Wednesday, I know Zion Williamson should get a few additional shot attempts. He took advantage of both players being out of the lineup on Monday, racking up 51.0 DraftKings points in 35.3 minutes, and he’s not expected to garner much ownership. He’s an excellent GPP target.

NBA DFS Center Picks

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Jusuf Nurkic is another player to consider for the Blazers on Wednesday. He has long been one of the best per-minute producers at the position, and he averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute this season. The biggest issue for Nurkic is consistent playing time, but that hasn’t been much of a challenge recently. He’s racked up at least 31.8 minutes in three straight games, and he’s unsurprisingly responded with at least 42.0 DraftKings points in each of them. Nurkic has also increased his usage rate by +1.9% with Lillard off the floor this season, so he carries a bit more upside than usual.


Value

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Nets are going to be without Ben Simmons on Wednesday. He exited Monday’s game early due to left knee soreness, which is the same injury that sidelined him earlier in the year. Right as Simmons started to remind us about his ability on the floor, it appears he’s headed for another stint on the sidelines.

Simmons’ loss should be Nic Claxtonit’s gain. Claxton logged 36.3 minutes on Monday, and he responded with 41.75 DraftKings points. Claxton has increased his production to 1.15 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should be locked in for at least 30 minutes as the team’s top center. The Wizards aren’t quite as good a matchup as they’ve been in the past, but this is simply too cheap of a price tag to pass up.


Fast Break

Jakob Poeltl is out of the lineup for the Spurs, opening up a few additional minutes for Zach Collins at center. Collins still isn’t going to play a ton – he’s projected for 24 minutes in our NBA Models – but that should be more than enough for him to return value. Collins has averaged a stout 1.22 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he racked up 31.5 DraftKings points in less than 19 minutes in his last game.

Nikola Jokic has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, and he was dominant Monday vs. the Rockets. He only needed to play 27.5 minutes in the blowout win, but that didn’t stop him from racking up 32 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists. He draws the same elite matchup on Wednesday, and the sky is the limit for Jokic if this game stays competitive.

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